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会走路的钱群聊精华帖 -- 20200913

#1 · 15 9 月, 2020, 1:46 上午

引用于 xiaonengshou 在 15 9 月, 2020, 1:46 上午
HuXu: Grow Wealth by Maintaining LeverageBy David S. J. Meng

If a landlord has several rental properties (maybe 1 or 2, maybe 10 or 20) and holds for the long-term, then after years of price appreciation and principal reduction, there will be a lot of equity in the houses. For example, if the current house price is $500,000 and the landlord owes the bank $200,000, then the landlord has $300,000 equity in that house.

If the landlord has five such rental houses, that is $1.5 million of equity sitting in the houses. If the landlord has ten such houses, that is $3 million equity. If the landlord has paid off the mortgages of some houses, that means even more equity.

I talked with multiple landlords. Some say: “Yes, I am free! No mortgages!” Some say: “I still have a lot of loan, but after years of paying the mortgages, the equity is increasing nicely.” Some say: “I still owe the banks some money, but I have more equity than the loan amount. And the loan will be paid off soon.”

Therefore, this is actually quite a common situation with landlords.

However, does it make financial sense to have substantial equity sitting in the properties? How can the equity be used to grow more money for the landlord?

(1) Pull cash out of the equity in houses to buy more houses. My wife and I would like to hold our properties for maybe another ten years. Do we just keep paying down the mortgages and increase the equity in the properties over time? Is there a better way?

In the past years, when we had a lot of equity in some of our properties, we used cash-out refinances multiple times as well as line of credit to pull some of the equity out, and used the cash to buy more properties, as demonstrated in my book. That reduced the equity in the houses, increased the leverage, increased the rate of return, and resulted in us owning more properties.

Similarly, you can pull the equity out to buy more rental properties. Then after several years, the equity in your properties will grow again due to principal reduction and price appreciation, and you can repeat to do cash-out, again and again. Or, you will do cash-out refinance on house A this year, then house B next year, then house C, etc.

By pulling cash out of the equity to buy more rental properties, the rate of return can be increased quite significantly. As shown in my book, the rate of return can be increased by 10% or more using proper leverage. Even if you increase your return by just 5%, say, from 15% to 20%, the difference is quite big after 20 years. As an example to illustrate this point, assume your initial investment is $300,000. After 20 years:

At 15% return rate: $300,000 x 1.15**20 = $4.9 million.

At 20% return rate: $300,000 x 1.2**20 = $11.5 million.

Therefore, a few percentage points in annual return can produce a huge difference in the end result. This method can potentially make millions of extra dollars.

(2) Pull cash out of the equity in the houses to buy stocks. While we keep our eyes open for more real estate deals, we do not want the money to sit around and do nothing, so we also put them into stocks. I do not invest in individual stocks. I do not have the talent to beat the Wall Street experts. I do not want the extra work to research stocks and the associated emotional stress. So I simply put money into an SP 500 index fund that charges a low fee of 0.04%. My 401k is 100% in SP 500 and I look at it only once a year. It is trouble-free and stress-free, and it saves me time.

Earlier this year 2020, with a line of credit on the rental properties, we borrowed $0.56 million from the bank and dumped it into an SP 500 index fund in late March and early April. It is now up over 30%.

The focus here is not trying to time the market. The point is: In the short term, the SP 500 goes up and down (No one knows what it will do tomorrow or next month). However, in the long term, it has returned about 10% annually on average from 1965-2019.

We are currently doing another cash-out refinance on two other townhouses, and if it goes well, we will be able to borrow about $350,000 cash from the bank. This will also be poured into the SP 500 index fund.

Then, maybe once a year, maybe every couple of years, whenever the equity grows sufficiently in some of the properties, we plan to do cash-out refinances or use a line of credit to borrow money from the banks and dump it into the SP 500.

Since the pouring into SP 500 will be over multiple years, we will be doing dollar cost averaging.

The SP 500 will crash; and it will boom. How to control its risk? I use two ways to control the risk: 1) Pour money into SP 500 over multiple years with dollar cost averaging; 2) Hold it for the long-term, for example, 10-20 years.

Then, it should revert to its historic average, which is about 10% per year. And we do plan to hold for a couple of decades.

(3) John and Peter. What we are doing above is like this: You borrow money from John at 4% interest. Then you turn around and give the money to Peter, and Peter pays you 10%. You sit at home and do nothing, and get 6% every year. You reinvest that 6%, and your wealth grows by compounding.

If you can borrow $1 million from the equity in your properties, that is $60,000/year for doing nothing. If you can borrow $2 million from the equity in your properties, that is $120,000 per year of passive income, that can go into the compounding magic.

Now the compounding magic. The loan that you owe the bank has a fixed amount; if you borrow $1 million, then it is $1 million. However, when you turn around and put this $1 million into SP 500, it will double or triple over the long-term. When it doubles after a number of years, then your 10% return is calculated based on the $2 million. When it triples to $3 million, then your 10% return is calculated based on the $3 million. In contrast, your loan from the bank is fixed at $1 million; it does not increase to $2 million or $3 million.

Your investment is compounding, but your loan amount is not compounding. The difference will be increasingly bigger after long-term investing. This means that your interest payment to the bank for the loan will become increasingly negligible compared to your profit, when you do this for 10-20 years.

Hence, as long as my rental properties can break even or produce a small positive cash-flow, the more I can borrow from the banks, the better.

Many years ago, I had a friend in China who had connections with the high level. He was able to borrow money from the bank at a super low interest rate, and then he turned around and gave the loans out to others at a normal market interest rate, making a difference of about 3%. Although the 3% difference was small, his base amount was big. So, do not look down on the small 3%. For example, if his base amount was 100 million yuan, 3% means 3 million yuan of passive income per year.

Most of us do not have such connections to make such easy money. But if you have a lot of equity in your houses, you can make such easy money too. And your difference is about 6%, if you hold for the long-term.

Furthermore, since the Fed has cut interest rates to near 0, it would be highly advantageous if you could lock in an interest rate of 3% or 3.5%. Since the interest payment in real estate is tax-deductible, after the tax benefit, you are only paying an effective interest of less than 3%, or a bit more than 2%. With the inflation being typically around 2%, it means that you are effectively paying nearly 0% in the real interest rate. It is virtually an interest-free loan.

Ask yourself: If you can borrow money from the bank at an effective real interest rate of almost 0%, why not borrow more money from the bank, and then turn around and plant that money to grow a “money tree” for your family?

Even if you plant only a small tree, it will grow over the years into a big “money tree” due to the compounding magic.

Therefore, think and grow rich. This article invites you to do some thinking, and do your own research. Then if you decide, borrow as much as possible from John at 3% or 4% interest rate, and give it to Peter and receive 10% return per year. And let the money compound for the long-term.

The simple method that I describe in this article will help maintain the leverage and increase the overall rate of return, while spending very little extra time and little extra effort. Your wealth will compound much faster this way, than having a lot of equity sitting in the properties doing nothing.
lili-eastlansing: 就是要不停地折腾Refinance维持杠杆比例
Cathy-IL猎手: Cash out 时W2很重要。
Ray: @HuXu 你的思路倒是不错的，不断从房产倒腾钱出来去投资股市[强][强]
HuXu: @Ray | WI，硅谷- Investor 谢谢您，SP500 简单一些[微笑][微笑]
HuXu: 现在贷款利息低，尤其是如果您是自住房cash out 的话，扣除付利息可以抵稅的好处，扣除通货膨胀，基本上是无息贷款
Ray: 「HuXu：@Ray | WI，硅谷- Investor 谢谢您，SP500 简单一些[Smile][Smile]」
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这个是你已经在做，已经很成功的案例吗？还是理论分析展示？
HuXu: @Ray | WI，硅谷- Investor 是我已经在做的
Agent Xiaojie Zavon 商住地产: @HuXu 拿出来cashout买股票也可以抵税？还是一定要做improvement！
Cathy-IL猎手: Cash out 的钱放入Roth ira帐户买指数基金或股票，赚的钱不交税，房市低了，这个帐户去买房。让HuXu和Betty谈谈如何操刀，我只抛砖引玉。
Cathy-IL猎手: 好像一年两口子放不了多少去Roth IRA.没多大用处。
Lei Zhou 🏠: 一年6000x2
HuXu: @Agent Xiaojie OHIO 商住地产房子的cash out 的利息可以抵稅。股市的利潤要交稅，但是长期持有的稅率比较低
Lei Zhou 🏠: 「Cathy-IL：
刚来的，存不了多少去IRA.没用。」
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一个人就6000。。。
老丁: 收入超过就没roth了
Lei Zhou 🏠: 可以backdoor啊
老丁: 那也是要交税的
molly: 怎么都逃不了，还是无解[捂脸]
Lei Zhou 🏠: 就6000块钱一个人的额度，不值得这么倒腾吧，又cash out refi的。用cash out的钱投了roth ira，手里的钱不就没法投了，有啥大区别？
Betty黄: 利率低要多借钱
Betty黄: 难道真的不知道美联储在基本上免费撒钱吗？
Betty黄: [Chat History]
Mike: 想想如果50%， 80% rental property has no rental income, can u sustain for 1 yr or more like CA proposal no eviction for over two years [呲牙][阴险]
Ray: 「Betty黄 MA ：难道真的不知道美联储在基本上免费撒钱吗？」
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关键是银行不借给你[Smirk][Smirk]，不是每个人都能借到钱
HuXu: 「Ray | WI，硅谷- Investor：关键是银行不借给你[Smirk][Smirk]，不是每个人都能借到钱」
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我今年初拿到了$56万的loan，我这篇文章里有提到。现在正在做两个出租房的cash out，tentatively approved, already finished appraisal. Hopefully will be done soon. 您可以多问几个银行。实在不行的话，可以找 local small commercial banks.
Lan: 银行是按房子价值的多少发放贷款利率呢？
Lan: 65%？
HuXu: 我个人觉得，做房地产的基础是 most people are good people. Most people are decent and dignified. If this is not true, then we cannot be landlords. Indeed, after carefully screening tenants, most tenants are good. If 90-95% is your leases are doing well, then you should be fine. It’s statistics.
HuXu: 「Lan-波士顿：银行是按房子价值的多少发放贷款利率呢？」
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The best is 80%. Sometimes 75%. Of the appraised house value.
Cathy-IL猎手: @HuXu 我刚听了会计师的讲座，cash out 的钱再去买房，利息抵税。如果用于吃喝玩乐，利息不可抵税。你怎幺想？
HuXu: @Cathy-IL猎手我的稅都是tax accountant take care of. So I’m not sure, sorry
Cathy-IL猎手: @Lan-波士顿鬼佬这样教我的。永远不要有太大equities 在房子里。将来留一屁股债给银行。很多首付款很快回本了。
Lan: 所以十年前才有这么多法拍房啊[惊恐]
Lan: 我们国人应该不会像他们那样，今天花明天的银子[偷笑]
Ray: 「Cathy-IL猎手：@HuXu 我刚听了会计师的讲座，cash out 的钱再去买房，利息抵税。如果用于吃喝玩乐，利息不可抵税。你怎幺想？」
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cash out的钱，谁知道钱用来干嘛了？个人感觉，因为cash out 出来一笔钱，相当于那个抵押的房产有一笔贷款，这个贷款需要付利息的
Lan: 所以要买贝版的书，入群呀，然后先像他学习，十年挣个一百几十万也很爽啦
HuXu: Take out a loan to grow a money tree is good loan. Take out a loan to 吃喝玩乐 is bad loan [微笑][微笑]
Lan: 我要是再年轻的时候就知道这个道理的话，说不定我早实现财务自由了[偷笑]
Lan: 不过像David Meng说的那样，现在就是最好的时候
HuXu: @Lan-波士顿同意，很值得读，很受益
Mike: 「Lan-波士顿：我要是再年轻的时候就知道这个道理的话，说不定我早实现财务自由了[Chuckle]」
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only if there are better investment than your loan rate otherwise bad loan
JM: @Cathy-IL猎手税务局怎么跟踪cash out钱的去处呢
李瑀: @JM Cashout refi is not a transaction like you sold your house, so no tax for your cash out money.
Ray: 「JM：@Cathy-IL猎手税务局怎么跟踪cash out钱的去处呢」
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是的，税务局无法跟踪的，怎么知道这笔钱拿去干嘛了？
HuXu: @Agent Xiaojie OHIO 商住地产 It depends, some have no-cost refi, but with a higher interest rate. Some charge more fees but give you a lower interest. I usually ask your real estate agent to recommend a good loan officer, one that her clients have used and is the best. So perhaps you can ask your agent to recommend one.
柏辰: [Link]
HuXu: Can he make another $5 million in the next 8 years?

By David S. J. Meng

Some friends said after my book: “Congratulations on your real estate investing. The past 8 years were great opportunities. You are lucky!”

Some friends kindly cautioned: “The past decade was a really good period for real estate. This cannot be repeated in the next 8 years, so be careful. You cannot make another $5 million in the next 8 years.”

Some friends are nice and kindly concerned: “Has the golden time already passed? Is that why you wrote a book to make money, because it’s now becoming difficult to make money in real estate?”

Brian, a world-renowned scientist from Australia, was my mentor in the 1990s. He was a fatherly figure with a kind heart. When some colleagues or regulations discriminated against Chinese students and visiting scholars, he stood up for us and defended us. One time, with his leverage as one of the best scientists at the institution, he wrote a strong letter to complain to the upper management for police policies at the gate that did not treat visiting scholars well. In the 1990s, he spent a lot of time and wrote a book. As a poor student, I asked him how much money he could make from the book. To my surprise, he said that it’s very little, negligible, and much less than minimum wage for the time he spent. However, he said that if the book can help people, then it is worth it. The book was his way to give back and his service to the community.

Books are important. I have learned a lot and benefited tremendously from reading real estate books and other investment books. I am grateful to those authors who are willing to teach. Without them, I would not be where I am today. My hope is that my book can motivate some people to invest. It can help people to pursue in the right direction. It can help level the playing field so that they can receive a fair share of the financial reward for their hard work. It can help people to achieve financial freedom, and to avoid some costly mistakes and pitfalls.

So, what will happen in the next 8 years? No one can predict the future. I cannot predict the future. The following is a humble and reasonable estimate.

Real estate can produce wealth for the investor through several channels, including the following.

(1) If you live in a booming area where Housing price appreciates at 7%, 10% or 12% per year;

(2) You are very handy and hardworking and can do a lot of the repairs and maintenance;

(3) Leverage.

I live in an area when house prices have increased a modest 3-4% per year in the past 8 years. I cannot change (1). I do not have the talent nor time to do (2). So, the one thing that I focus on is (3).

I contact loan officers. I invite VPs of banks near where I live to lunches. I push the leverage cautiously to the maximum, with safeguards (as described in my book “$5 million in 8 years”). This can truly increase the rate of return safely and substantially, while spending the least amount of time.

Real estate requires leverage. Without leverage, the rental houses will have return rates not so different from the SP 500 in the long term, which is trouble-free. Then why spend all the time and effort to deal with multiple houses, repairs and tenants? To me personally, real estate is not worth doing without leverage.

The leverage helped produce an average of 27% annual rate for us in the past 8 years. We do not know what will happen in the next 8 years. But my wife and I will maintain the leverage, by pulling out cash from the rental properties whenever there is plenty of equity, to buy more properties, or to dump into the SP 500.

Earlier this year, my wife and I borrowed $560,000 from the bank and put it into the SP 500 in March and early April.

Currently we are doing cash-out refinance on two townhouses to borrow $350,000 from the bank. It is tentatively approved and still doing paperwork. We plan to put that into SP 500 too.

Every couple of years, we will pull cash out of some of the rentals and put into SP 500 for dollar cost averaging. We will hold for the long term for a couple of decades.

In this way, we will maintain the leverage in our rental properties. Rents and housing prices have gone up about 4% in my area this year, compared to a year ago. With our leverage, it will probably allow an annual rate of return of about 20% in rental properties. SP 500 yields 10% in the long term. So, between 20% and 15%, we can reasonably assume a mid-point of 15% overall.

With the $5.5 million as of the end of 2019, at 15% annual rate:

$5.5 million x 1.15**8 = $16.8 million.

This means that we will make (16.8 – 5.5 =) $11.3 million in the next 8 years.

Even at a lower rate of 12% per year:

$5.5 million x 1.12**8 = $13.6 million.

This means that we will make (13.6 – 5.5 =) $8.1 million in the next 8 years.

While no one can predict the future, in either case, we humbly and reasonably expect to make more than $5 million in the next 8 years.

Many readers are familiar with BayFamily and his bold proposal to make $10 million in 10 years. Some people doubted when he first proposed this plan. Eventually, he did successfully reach his $10 million goal, although it took about 13 years, a little longer than 10 years. But the important thing is that he did it. He reached the $10 million goal.

The math above indicates that it is possible for my wife and I to reach $10 million in 13 years too. From 8 years to 13 years, there are 5 years left:

$5.5 million x 1.13**5 = 10.1 million.

So, if we can have an annual return of 13% in the next 5 years, we should reach $10 million at 5 years from now, for a total of 13 years, the same as BayFamily.

This shows that the BayFamily plan can be repeated.

This shows that our plan can be repeated.

This shows the importance of goal, math, execution, and courage. Keep your focus on the numbers. Don’t let negative emotion or the naysayers stop you.

And regarding longer term, say, in the next 15 years, just assume a conservative 10% per year:

$5.5 million x 1.1**15 = $23 million.

Again, compounding over time is the eighth wonder of the world. It can do wonders for us. It can do wonders for you. Thank you for reading. Good luck in your investing.
HuXu: 这个小文章证明了贝版是对的，是可以复制的
Ray: 「HuXu：这个小文章证明了贝版是对的，是可以复制的」
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你是通过什么方法策略保证10%的复合投资增长的？
HuXu: @Ray | WI，硅谷- Investor 您好，请看这个
HuXu: [Photo]
HuXu: [Photo]
HuXu: 房地产用杠杆，可以超过SP 500
Ray: 看来你是投SP500 啊[强][强]
Lei Zhou 🏠: 「HuXu：
房地产用杠杆，可以超过SP 500」
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最好算一下1965到每一年的平均return，会发现浮动很大
Lei Zhou 🏠: 比如1965-2008/2009
HuXu: 「Ray | WI，硅谷- Investor：看来你是投SP500 啊[ThumbsUp][ThumbsUp]」
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房地产为主，加上SP 500
HuXu: 我贷款的利息3.5%, sometimes 4%. Tax deductible. So, as long SP500 can exceed 5% or 6%, I’ll have profit. Long term SP 500 should be close to 10%.
Betty黄: 这么低的利率，肯定要cash out refinance ，然后投 SP 500或者指数吧
Lily 👭: 银行是按房子价值的多少发放贷款利率呢？// investment or primary both better at LTV<=75% cashout. Primary 0.625 points hit, .875 with 80% LTV and investment 2.125 hit, 80% 3.375.
Lily 👭: [Photo]
Lily 👭: 羊毛出在羊身上，more points hit, more cost, higher rate if you want to off set the points by interest rate.
Lily 👭: Please keep the slice with this group. Thanks!
Lily 👭: Also, points hit different with different LTV, rate and term refine, cashout, property type, loan term, different states and occupancy.[愉快] if you understand the slide, you pretty much understand why I said rate and cost are always depending. And you need to evaluate the rate and cost with package. [愉快]
Lily 👭: 「Lan-波士顿：
@Lily🤗IL-Loan-CaFlGaMdTxVaWa 不好意思，我智商低，没看懂你的图」
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If you can understand everything, you can be good LO already. Just for FYI. This is LO's job and it is internal using only. You do not have to know or understand.
HuXu: @Lily🤗IL-Loan-CaFlGaMdTxVaWa 是的，主要就是说利息低的话，费用高一些。费用低的话，利息高一些。找经纪人或者找朋友们推荐好的loan officer。
HuXu: 「Lei Zhou 🏠：比如1965-2008/2009」
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是的，所以我是用dollar cost averaging over many years. Hold for the long term.
HuXu: @Lan-波士顿今年做一点，然后机会明年后年每年继续做
HuXu: 「Lan-波士顿：how long do you plan to hold it?」
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不知道呢，等退休以后一边hold 一边花吧[Smile][Smile]
Cathy-IL猎手: @HuXu cash out 4%，tax deductible，投入股市10%。利差6%.股市盈利的10%如何交税？
HuXu: @Cathy-IL猎手股市盈利交稅应該和正常的股市交稅是一样的，如果长期投资稅低一些。我都是交给我的tax accountant做。
Lily 👭: 「HuXu：
@Lily🤗IL-Loan-CaFlGaMdTxVaWa 是的，主要就是说利息低的话，费用高一些。费用低的话，利息高一些。找经纪人或者找朋友们推荐好的loan officer。」
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That's right. Find a good one, build a good relationship, let the professional working free for you. Why not.
Betty黄: 股市需要monitor。股市涨的时候不敢买的人，实际上股市跌的时候还是不敢买
Agent Xiaojie Zavon 商住地产: @HuXu 嗯 I am an agent myself - lol just wanted to compare different market.
Agent Xiaojie Zavon 商住地产: @Lan-波士顿 falling knife 😂我不敢
HuXu: @Agent Xiaojie OHIO 商住地产好的您是专家[强][强]
Betty黄: 等股市涨了30% 回调15% 😂😂

阿唐*Jeff: https://www.amazon.com/Million-Years-Real-Estate-Investing-ebook/dp/B08CTTP64T
gamespeed: 「Jeff Tang（车房等各类保险）：
https://www.amazon.com/Million-Years-Real-Estate-Investing-ebook/dp/B08CTTP64T」
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不知道这个作者什么来头。他给自己家庭财富计算出来27%的年增长率然后拿去跟标普500之类比较。自然是比指数要高，因为指数基金不会赚工资，而且房产投资带了杠杆。比较好奇作者有没有准备好之后可能到来的eviction crisis
丁博: 2011年开始做，加上杠杆27%也挺正常的啊，房产抄到底了，几十年一遇的机会
丁博: 未来能啥样谁知道了，这就跟赶上牛市疯狂加杠杆赚钱了就说自己是股神一个道理[Emm]
gamespeed: 「丁博-洛杉矶-工程师：
2011年开始做，加上杠杆27%也挺正常的啊，房产抄到底了，几十年一遇的机会」
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那个27%应该还包括了他每年从工资里攒下的钱吧
Cathy-IL猎手: 不用考证别人的27%。自己做到自己的27%就好。别人的例子，恭喜一下就行了。
Connie Zhao: @all 打扰一下各位哈！你身边有没有人能辅导美国本科、州立大学、物理专业。量子物理,热动力学,电路学,三门课程的人？或者辅导其中一门也可。再或者你知道线上的、Tutoring辅导网站可以推荐的？孩子需要辅导。
Connie Zhao: @all 大家好，你身边有没有人能辅导美国本科州立大学物理专业。量子物理、热动力学、电路学三门课程。能辅导其中一门课也行。孩子需要课程辅导。有偿辅导。

电路学Electronic Devices and Their Applications

热力学 thermodynamics

量子力学 Quantum Mechanics
韩珊珊: 美国大学里，每门课都有免费的辅导老师（当然也可以付费按您的要求做更多的辅导），建议您先试试这个渠道。
Connie Zhao: @韩珊珊-达拉斯-RE Investor 谢谢回应。这是个思路。这学期学校把TA给cut 。现在是一个教授带十个学生。
韩珊珊: 如果是我，我会请求任课教授推荐1-2名TA, 尤其您是付费的，很多学长一定会很乐意帮忙；或者在学校的公告栏里打广告。
WalkerSun: 关于回国机票
WalkerSun: 现在的三日核算检测
WalkerSun: 有没有朋友知道是三日核算检测报告是出报告那天算起到登机
WalkerSun: 还是检测当日算起登机
WalkerSun: 因为有些医院检测时间是三日内拿报告
ytt: 出报告
岚岚妈妈: 我家女儿也是6岁看的小狗钱钱[微笑]
马瑞: 六岁认识那么多字，厉害啊
岚岚妈妈: 嗯，也是她看的第一本没有图的书
Jun: 上次在这里发了WI的捐款信息。现在已经结束，所以前来更新。原计划是两块广告牌，后来扩展到五块广告牌。款项已经全都集齐，大概共计$9350。头两块的合同已签，后三块的广告给了个很大的折扣，3195块给三块广告牌。群里面如果有捐款的，或者转发的，再次表示感谢。
乐道安贫: 脸书又摊上大事！

HuXu: Grow Wealth by Maintaining LeverageBy David S. J. Meng

If a landlord has several rental properties (maybe 1 or 2, maybe 10 or 20) and holds for the long-term, then after years of price appreciation and principal reduction, there will be a lot of equity in the houses. For example, if the current house price is $500,000 and the landlord owes the bank $200,000, then the landlord has $300,000 equity in that house.

If the landlord has five such rental houses, that is $1.5 million of equity sitting in the houses. If the landlord has ten such houses, that is $3 million equity. If the landlord has paid off the mortgages of some houses, that means even more equity.

I talked with multiple landlords. Some say: “Yes, I am free! No mortgages!” Some say: “I still have a lot of loan, but after years of paying the mortgages, the equity is increasing nicely.” Some say: “I still owe the banks some money, but I have more equity than the loan amount. And the loan will be paid off soon.”

Therefore, this is actually quite a common situation with landlords.

However, does it make financial sense to have substantial equity sitting in the properties? How can the equity be used to grow more money for the landlord?

(1) Pull cash out of the equity in houses to buy more houses. My wife and I would like to hold our properties for maybe another ten years. Do we just keep paying down the mortgages and increase the equity in the properties over time? Is there a better way?

In the past years, when we had a lot of equity in some of our properties, we used cash-out refinances multiple times as well as line of credit to pull some of the equity out, and used the cash to buy more properties, as demonstrated in my book. That reduced the equity in the houses, increased the leverage, increased the rate of return, and resulted in us owning more properties.

Similarly, you can pull the equity out to buy more rental properties. Then after several years, the equity in your properties will grow again due to principal reduction and price appreciation, and you can repeat to do cash-out, again and again. Or, you will do cash-out refinance on house A this year, then house B next year, then house C, etc.

By pulling cash out of the equity to buy more rental properties, the rate of return can be increased quite significantly. As shown in my book, the rate of return can be increased by 10% or more using proper leverage. Even if you increase your return by just 5%, say, from 15% to 20%, the difference is quite big after 20 years. As an example to illustrate this point, assume your initial investment is $300,000. After 20 years:

At 15% return rate: $300,000 x 1.15**20 = $4.9 million.

At 20% return rate: $300,000 x 1.2**20 = $11.5 million.

Therefore, a few percentage points in annual return can produce a huge difference in the end result. This method can potentially make millions of extra dollars.

(2) Pull cash out of the equity in the houses to buy stocks. While we keep our eyes open for more real estate deals, we do not want the money to sit around and do nothing, so we also put them into stocks. I do not invest in individual stocks. I do not have the talent to beat the Wall Street experts. I do not want the extra work to research stocks and the associated emotional stress. So I simply put money into an SP 500 index fund that charges a low fee of 0.04%. My 401k is 100% in SP 500 and I look at it only once a year. It is trouble-free and stress-free, and it saves me time.

Earlier this year 2020, with a line of credit on the rental properties, we borrowed $0.56 million from the bank and dumped it into an SP 500 index fund in late March and early April. It is now up over 30%.

The focus here is not trying to time the market. The point is: In the short term, the SP 500 goes up and down (No one knows what it will do tomorrow or next month). However, in the long term, it has returned about 10% annually on average from 1965-2019.

We are currently doing another cash-out refinance on two other townhouses, and if it goes well, we will be able to borrow about $350,000 cash from the bank. This will also be poured into the SP 500 index fund.

Then, maybe once a year, maybe every couple of years, whenever the equity grows sufficiently in some of the properties, we plan to do cash-out refinances or use a line of credit to borrow money from the banks and dump it into the SP 500.

Since the pouring into SP 500 will be over multiple years, we will be doing dollar cost averaging.

The SP 500 will crash; and it will boom. How to control its risk? I use two ways to control the risk: 1) Pour money into SP 500 over multiple years with dollar cost averaging; 2) Hold it for the long-term, for example, 10-20 years.

Then, it should revert to its historic average, which is about 10% per year. And we do plan to hold for a couple of decades.

(3) John and Peter. What we are doing above is like this: You borrow money from John at 4% interest. Then you turn around and give the money to Peter, and Peter pays you 10%. You sit at home and do nothing, and get 6% every year. You reinvest that 6%, and your wealth grows by compounding.

If you can borrow $1 million from the equity in your properties, that is $60,000/year for doing nothing. If you can borrow $2 million from the equity in your properties, that is $120,000 per year of passive income, that can go into the compounding magic.

Now the compounding magic. The loan that you owe the bank has a fixed amount; if you borrow $1 million, then it is $1 million. However, when you turn around and put this $1 million into SP 500, it will double or triple over the long-term. When it doubles after a number of years, then your 10% return is calculated based on the $2 million. When it triples to $3 million, then your 10% return is calculated based on the $3 million. In contrast, your loan from the bank is fixed at $1 million; it does not increase to $2 million or $3 million.

Your investment is compounding, but your loan amount is not compounding. The difference will be increasingly bigger after long-term investing. This means that your interest payment to the bank for the loan will become increasingly negligible compared to your profit, when you do this for 10-20 years.

Hence, as long as my rental properties can break even or produce a small positive cash-flow, the more I can borrow from the banks, the better.

Many years ago, I had a friend in China who had connections with the high level. He was able to borrow money from the bank at a super low interest rate, and then he turned around and gave the loans out to others at a normal market interest rate, making a difference of about 3%. Although the 3% difference was small, his base amount was big. So, do not look down on the small 3%. For example, if his base amount was 100 million yuan, 3% means 3 million yuan of passive income per year.

Most of us do not have such connections to make such easy money. But if you have a lot of equity in your houses, you can make such easy money too. And your difference is about 6%, if you hold for the long-term.

Furthermore, since the Fed has cut interest rates to near 0, it would be highly advantageous if you could lock in an interest rate of 3% or 3.5%. Since the interest payment in real estate is tax-deductible, after the tax benefit, you are only paying an effective interest of less than 3%, or a bit more than 2%. With the inflation being typically around 2%, it means that you are effectively paying nearly 0% in the real interest rate. It is virtually an interest-free loan.

Ask yourself: If you can borrow money from the bank at an effective real interest rate of almost 0%, why not borrow more money from the bank, and then turn around and plant that money to grow a “money tree” for your family?

Even if you plant only a small tree, it will grow over the years into a big “money tree” due to the compounding magic.

Therefore, think and grow rich. This article invites you to do some thinking, and do your own research. Then if you decide, borrow as much as possible from John at 3% or 4% interest rate, and give it to Peter and receive 10% return per year. And let the money compound for the long-term.

The simple method that I describe in this article will help maintain the leverage and increase the overall rate of return, while spending very little extra time and little extra effort. Your wealth will compound much faster this way, than having a lot of equity sitting in the properties doing nothing.
lili-eastlansing: 就是要不停地折腾Refinance维持杠杆比例
Cathy-IL猎手: Cash out 时W2很重要。
Ray: @HuXu 你的思路倒是不错的，不断从房产倒腾钱出来去投资股市[强][强]
HuXu: @Ray | WI，硅谷- Investor 谢谢您，SP500 简单一些[微笑][微笑]
HuXu: 现在贷款利息低，尤其是如果您是自住房cash out 的话，扣除付利息可以抵稅的好处，扣除通货膨胀，基本上是无息贷款
Ray: 「HuXu：@Ray | WI，硅谷- Investor 谢谢您，SP500 简单一些[Smile][Smile]」
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这个是你已经在做，已经很成功的案例吗？还是理论分析展示？
HuXu: @Ray | WI，硅谷- Investor 是我已经在做的
Agent Xiaojie Zavon 商住地产: @HuXu 拿出来cashout买股票也可以抵税？还是一定要做improvement！
Cathy-IL猎手: Cash out 的钱放入Roth ira帐户买指数基金或股票，赚的钱不交税，房市低了，这个帐户去买房。让HuXu和Betty谈谈如何操刀，我只抛砖引玉。
Cathy-IL猎手: 好像一年两口子放不了多少去Roth IRA.没多大用处。
Lei Zhou 🏠: 一年6000x2
HuXu: @Agent Xiaojie OHIO 商住地产房子的cash out 的利息可以抵稅。股市的利潤要交稅，但是长期持有的稅率比较低
Lei Zhou 🏠: 「Cathy-IL：
刚来的，存不了多少去IRA.没用。」
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一个人就6000。。。
老丁: 收入超过就没roth了
Lei Zhou 🏠: 可以backdoor啊
老丁: 那也是要交税的
molly: 怎么都逃不了，还是无解[捂脸]
Lei Zhou 🏠: 就6000块钱一个人的额度，不值得这么倒腾吧，又cash out refi的。用cash out的钱投了roth ira，手里的钱不就没法投了，有啥大区别？
Betty黄: 利率低要多借钱
Betty黄: 难道真的不知道美联储在基本上免费撒钱吗？
Betty黄: [Chat History]
Mike: 想想如果50%， 80% rental property has no rental income, can u sustain for 1 yr or more like CA proposal no eviction for over two years [呲牙][阴险]
Ray: 「Betty黄 MA ：难道真的不知道美联储在基本上免费撒钱吗？」
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关键是银行不借给你[Smirk][Smirk]，不是每个人都能借到钱
HuXu: 「Ray | WI，硅谷- Investor：关键是银行不借给你[Smirk][Smirk]，不是每个人都能借到钱」
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我今年初拿到了$56万的loan，我这篇文章里有提到。现在正在做两个出租房的cash out，tentatively approved, already finished appraisal. Hopefully will be done soon. 您可以多问几个银行。实在不行的话，可以找 local small commercial banks.
Lan: 银行是按房子价值的多少发放贷款利率呢？
Lan: 65%？
HuXu: 我个人觉得，做房地产的基础是 most people are good people. Most people are decent and dignified. If this is not true, then we cannot be landlords. Indeed, after carefully screening tenants, most tenants are good. If 90-95% is your leases are doing well, then you should be fine. It’s statistics.
HuXu: 「Lan-波士顿：银行是按房子价值的多少发放贷款利率呢？」
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The best is 80%. Sometimes 75%. Of the appraised house value.
Cathy-IL猎手: @HuXu 我刚听了会计师的讲座，cash out 的钱再去买房，利息抵税。如果用于吃喝玩乐，利息不可抵税。你怎幺想？
HuXu: @Cathy-IL猎手我的稅都是tax accountant take care of. So I’m not sure, sorry
Cathy-IL猎手: @Lan-波士顿鬼佬这样教我的。永远不要有太大equities 在房子里。将来留一屁股债给银行。很多首付款很快回本了。
Lan: 所以十年前才有这么多法拍房啊[惊恐]
Lan: 我们国人应该不会像他们那样，今天花明天的银子[偷笑]
Ray: 「Cathy-IL猎手：@HuXu 我刚听了会计师的讲座，cash out 的钱再去买房，利息抵税。如果用于吃喝玩乐，利息不可抵税。你怎幺想？」
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cash out的钱，谁知道钱用来干嘛了？个人感觉，因为cash out 出来一笔钱，相当于那个抵押的房产有一笔贷款，这个贷款需要付利息的
Lan: 所以要买贝版的书，入群呀，然后先像他学习，十年挣个一百几十万也很爽啦
HuXu: Take out a loan to grow a money tree is good loan. Take out a loan to 吃喝玩乐 is bad loan [微笑][微笑]
Lan: 我要是再年轻的时候就知道这个道理的话，说不定我早实现财务自由了[偷笑]
Lan: 不过像David Meng说的那样，现在就是最好的时候
HuXu: @Lan-波士顿同意，很值得读，很受益
Mike: 「Lan-波士顿：我要是再年轻的时候就知道这个道理的话，说不定我早实现财务自由了[Chuckle]」
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only if there are better investment than your loan rate otherwise bad loan
JM: @Cathy-IL猎手税务局怎么跟踪cash out钱的去处呢
李瑀: @JM Cashout refi is not a transaction like you sold your house, so no tax for your cash out money.
Ray: 「JM：@Cathy-IL猎手税务局怎么跟踪cash out钱的去处呢」
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是的，税务局无法跟踪的，怎么知道这笔钱拿去干嘛了？
HuXu: @Agent Xiaojie OHIO 商住地产 It depends, some have no-cost refi, but with a higher interest rate. Some charge more fees but give you a lower interest. I usually ask your real estate agent to recommend a good loan officer, one that her clients have used and is the best. So perhaps you can ask your agent to recommend one.
柏辰: [Link]
HuXu: Can he make another $5 million in the next 8 years?

By David S. J. Meng

Some friends said after my book: “Congratulations on your real estate investing. The past 8 years were great opportunities. You are lucky!”

Some friends kindly cautioned: “The past decade was a really good period for real estate. This cannot be repeated in the next 8 years, so be careful. You cannot make another $5 million in the next 8 years.”

Some friends are nice and kindly concerned: “Has the golden time already passed? Is that why you wrote a book to make money, because it’s now becoming difficult to make money in real estate?”

Brian, a world-renowned scientist from Australia, was my mentor in the 1990s. He was a fatherly figure with a kind heart. When some colleagues or regulations discriminated against Chinese students and visiting scholars, he stood up for us and defended us. One time, with his leverage as one of the best scientists at the institution, he wrote a strong letter to complain to the upper management for police policies at the gate that did not treat visiting scholars well. In the 1990s, he spent a lot of time and wrote a book. As a poor student, I asked him how much money he could make from the book. To my surprise, he said that it’s very little, negligible, and much less than minimum wage for the time he spent. However, he said that if the book can help people, then it is worth it. The book was his way to give back and his service to the community.

Books are important. I have learned a lot and benefited tremendously from reading real estate books and other investment books. I am grateful to those authors who are willing to teach. Without them, I would not be where I am today. My hope is that my book can motivate some people to invest. It can help people to pursue in the right direction. It can help level the playing field so that they can receive a fair share of the financial reward for their hard work. It can help people to achieve financial freedom, and to avoid some costly mistakes and pitfalls.

So, what will happen in the next 8 years? No one can predict the future. I cannot predict the future. The following is a humble and reasonable estimate.

Real estate can produce wealth for the investor through several channels, including the following.

(1) If you live in a booming area where Housing price appreciates at 7%, 10% or 12% per year;

(2) You are very handy and hardworking and can do a lot of the repairs and maintenance;

(3) Leverage.

I live in an area when house prices have increased a modest 3-4% per year in the past 8 years. I cannot change (1). I do not have the talent nor time to do (2). So, the one thing that I focus on is (3).

I contact loan officers. I invite VPs of banks near where I live to lunches. I push the leverage cautiously to the maximum, with safeguards (as described in my book “$5 million in 8 years”). This can truly increase the rate of return safely and substantially, while spending the least amount of time.

Real estate requires leverage. Without leverage, the rental houses will have return rates not so different from the SP 500 in the long term, which is trouble-free. Then why spend all the time and effort to deal with multiple houses, repairs and tenants? To me personally, real estate is not worth doing without leverage.

The leverage helped produce an average of 27% annual rate for us in the past 8 years. We do not know what will happen in the next 8 years. But my wife and I will maintain the leverage, by pulling out cash from the rental properties whenever there is plenty of equity, to buy more properties, or to dump into the SP 500.

Earlier this year, my wife and I borrowed $560,000 from the bank and put it into the SP 500 in March and early April.

Currently we are doing cash-out refinance on two townhouses to borrow $350,000 from the bank. It is tentatively approved and still doing paperwork. We plan to put that into SP 500 too.

Every couple of years, we will pull cash out of some of the rentals and put into SP 500 for dollar cost averaging. We will hold for the long term for a couple of decades.

In this way, we will maintain the leverage in our rental properties. Rents and housing prices have gone up about 4% in my area this year, compared to a year ago. With our leverage, it will probably allow an annual rate of return of about 20% in rental properties. SP 500 yields 10% in the long term. So, between 20% and 15%, we can reasonably assume a mid-point of 15% overall.

With the $5.5 million as of the end of 2019, at 15% annual rate:

$5.5 million x 1.15**8 = $16.8 million.

This means that we will make (16.8 – 5.5 =) $11.3 million in the next 8 years.

Even at a lower rate of 12% per year:

$5.5 million x 1.12**8 = $13.6 million.

This means that we will make (13.6 – 5.5 =) $8.1 million in the next 8 years.

While no one can predict the future, in either case, we humbly and reasonably expect to make more than $5 million in the next 8 years.

Many readers are familiar with BayFamily and his bold proposal to make $10 million in 10 years. Some people doubted when he first proposed this plan. Eventually, he did successfully reach his $10 million goal, although it took about 13 years, a little longer than 10 years. But the important thing is that he did it. He reached the $10 million goal.

The math above indicates that it is possible for my wife and I to reach $10 million in 13 years too. From 8 years to 13 years, there are 5 years left:

$5.5 million x 1.13**5 = 10.1 million.

So, if we can have an annual return of 13% in the next 5 years, we should reach $10 million at 5 years from now, for a total of 13 years, the same as BayFamily.

This shows that the BayFamily plan can be repeated.

This shows that our plan can be repeated.

This shows the importance of goal, math, execution, and courage. Keep your focus on the numbers. Don’t let negative emotion or the naysayers stop you.

And regarding longer term, say, in the next 15 years, just assume a conservative 10% per year:

$5.5 million x 1.1**15 = $23 million.

Again, compounding over time is the eighth wonder of the world. It can do wonders for us. It can do wonders for you. Thank you for reading. Good luck in your investing.
HuXu: 这个小文章证明了贝版是对的，是可以复制的
Ray: 「HuXu：这个小文章证明了贝版是对的，是可以复制的」
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你是通过什么方法策略保证10%的复合投资增长的？
HuXu: @Ray | WI，硅谷- Investor 您好，请看这个
HuXu: [Photo]
HuXu: [Photo]
HuXu: 房地产用杠杆，可以超过SP 500
Ray: 看来你是投SP500 啊[强][强]
Lei Zhou 🏠: 「HuXu：
房地产用杠杆，可以超过SP 500」
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最好算一下1965到每一年的平均return，会发现浮动很大
Lei Zhou 🏠: 比如1965-2008/2009
HuXu: 「Ray | WI，硅谷- Investor：看来你是投SP500 啊[ThumbsUp][ThumbsUp]」
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房地产为主，加上SP 500
HuXu: 我贷款的利息3.5%, sometimes 4%. Tax deductible. So, as long SP500 can exceed 5% or 6%, I’ll have profit. Long term SP 500 should be close to 10%.
Betty黄: 这么低的利率，肯定要cash out refinance ，然后投 SP 500或者指数吧
Lily 👭: 银行是按房子价值的多少发放贷款利率呢？// investment or primary both better at LTV<=75% cashout. Primary 0.625 points hit, .875 with 80% LTV and investment 2.125 hit, 80% 3.375.
Lily 👭: [Photo]
Lily 👭: 羊毛出在羊身上，more points hit, more cost, higher rate if you want to off set the points by interest rate.
Lily 👭: Please keep the slice with this group. Thanks!
Lily 👭: Also, points hit different with different LTV, rate and term refine, cashout, property type, loan term, different states and occupancy.[愉快] if you understand the slide, you pretty much understand why I said rate and cost are always depending. And you need to evaluate the rate and cost with package. [愉快]
Lily 👭: 「Lan-波士顿：
@Lily🤗IL-Loan-CaFlGaMdTxVaWa 不好意思，我智商低，没看懂你的图」
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If you can understand everything, you can be good LO already. Just for FYI. This is LO's job and it is internal using only. You do not have to know or understand.
HuXu: @Lily🤗IL-Loan-CaFlGaMdTxVaWa 是的，主要就是说利息低的话，费用高一些。费用低的话，利息高一些。找经纪人或者找朋友们推荐好的loan officer。
HuXu: 「Lei Zhou 🏠：比如1965-2008/2009」
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是的，所以我是用dollar cost averaging over many years. Hold for the long term.
HuXu: @Lan-波士顿今年做一点，然后机会明年后年每年继续做
HuXu: 「Lan-波士顿：how long do you plan to hold it?」
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不知道呢，等退休以后一边hold 一边花吧[Smile][Smile]
Cathy-IL猎手: @HuXu cash out 4%，tax deductible，投入股市10%。利差6%.股市盈利的10%如何交税？
HuXu: @Cathy-IL猎手股市盈利交稅应該和正常的股市交稅是一样的，如果长期投资稅低一些。我都是交给我的tax accountant做。
Lily 👭: 「HuXu：
@Lily🤗IL-Loan-CaFlGaMdTxVaWa 是的，主要就是说利息低的话，费用高一些。费用低的话，利息高一些。找经纪人或者找朋友们推荐好的loan officer。」
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That's right. Find a good one, build a good relationship, let the professional working free for you. Why not.
Betty黄: 股市需要monitor。股市涨的时候不敢买的人，实际上股市跌的时候还是不敢买
Agent Xiaojie Zavon 商住地产: @HuXu 嗯 I am an agent myself - lol just wanted to compare different market.
Agent Xiaojie Zavon 商住地产: @Lan-波士顿 falling knife 😂我不敢
HuXu: @Agent Xiaojie OHIO 商住地产好的您是专家[强][强]
Betty黄: 等股市涨了30% 回调15% 😂😂

阿唐*Jeff: https://www.amazon.com/Million-Years-Real-Estate-Investing-ebook/dp/B08CTTP64T
gamespeed: 「Jeff Tang（车房等各类保险）：
https://www.amazon.com/Million-Years-Real-Estate-Investing-ebook/dp/B08CTTP64T」
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不知道这个作者什么来头。他给自己家庭财富计算出来27%的年增长率然后拿去跟标普500之类比较。自然是比指数要高，因为指数基金不会赚工资，而且房产投资带了杠杆。比较好奇作者有没有准备好之后可能到来的eviction crisis
丁博: 2011年开始做，加上杠杆27%也挺正常的啊，房产抄到底了，几十年一遇的机会
丁博: 未来能啥样谁知道了，这就跟赶上牛市疯狂加杠杆赚钱了就说自己是股神一个道理[Emm]
gamespeed: 「丁博-洛杉矶-工程师：
2011年开始做，加上杠杆27%也挺正常的啊，房产抄到底了，几十年一遇的机会」
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那个27%应该还包括了他每年从工资里攒下的钱吧
Cathy-IL猎手: 不用考证别人的27%。自己做到自己的27%就好。别人的例子，恭喜一下就行了。
Connie Zhao: @all 打扰一下各位哈！你身边有没有人能辅导美国本科、州立大学、物理专业。量子物理,热动力学,电路学,三门课程的人？或者辅导其中一门也可。再或者你知道线上的、Tutoring辅导网站可以推荐的？孩子需要辅导。
Connie Zhao: @all 大家好，你身边有没有人能辅导美国本科州立大学物理专业。量子物理、热动力学、电路学三门课程。能辅导其中一门课也行。孩子需要课程辅导。有偿辅导。

电路学Electronic Devices and Their Applications

热力学 thermodynamics

量子力学 Quantum Mechanics
韩珊珊: 美国大学里，每门课都有免费的辅导老师（当然也可以付费按您的要求做更多的辅导），建议您先试试这个渠道。
Connie Zhao: @韩珊珊-达拉斯-RE Investor 谢谢回应。这是个思路。这学期学校把TA给cut 。现在是一个教授带十个学生。
韩珊珊: 如果是我，我会请求任课教授推荐1-2名TA, 尤其您是付费的，很多学长一定会很乐意帮忙；或者在学校的公告栏里打广告。
WalkerSun: 关于回国机票
WalkerSun: 现在的三日核算检测
WalkerSun: 有没有朋友知道是三日核算检测报告是出报告那天算起到登机
WalkerSun: 还是检测当日算起登机
WalkerSun: 因为有些医院检测时间是三日内拿报告
ytt: 出报告
岚岚妈妈: 我家女儿也是6岁看的小狗钱钱[微笑]
马瑞: 六岁认识那么多字，厉害啊
岚岚妈妈: 嗯，也是她看的第一本没有图的书
Jun: 上次在这里发了WI的捐款信息。现在已经结束，所以前来更新。原计划是两块广告牌，后来扩展到五块广告牌。款项已经全都集齐，大概共计$9350。头两块的合同已签，后三块的广告给了个很大的折扣，3195块给三块广告牌。群里面如果有捐款的，或者转发的，再次表示感谢。
乐道安贫: 脸书又摊上大事！

会走路的钱 群聊精华帖 -- 20200913

会走路的钱群聊精华帖 -- 20200913